东海证券-海外观察：美国2025年6月CPI数据，关税冲击初显，三季度或难降息

Inflation Data - The US June CPI year-on-year increased to 2.7%, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.4%[7] - The core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0% and up from 2.8% previously[7] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.0%, reversing from a previous decline of -2.4%[7] Economic Outlook - The strong inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in Q3 2025, increasing the risk of "stagflation" in the US economy[5] - If July's non-farm employment and inflation data diverge again, the Fed may face a choice between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation[5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, US stock markets remained flat, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index rose, and gold prices fell[5] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has decreased, with the probability now at 53.5%[10] Sector Analysis - Core goods prices increased year-on-year from 0.3% to 0.7%, with apparel being a major contributor[7] - The housing market continues to cool, with housing prices year-on-year dropping from 3.9% to 3.8%[7] Risks - Risks include potential inflation expectations rising due to US tariff negotiations not meeting expectations, and a downturn in the US economy and employment exceeding forecasts[6]