主要能源机构7月平衡表

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA further strengthened the degree of supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year in its July report. Supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand changes little, leading to a continuous downward pressure on oil prices. Uncertainties mainly come from geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production compliance [9]. - OPEC's July report shows that global oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. Non-OECD countries are the main drivers of demand growth. Non-OPEC+ supply is also expected to increase, and OPEC+ needs to adjust production to achieve supply - demand balance [47][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EIA 3.1.1 EIA Balance Sheet - EIA predicts that the global crude oil supply will exceed demand in each quarter of 2025 and 2026. The supply surplus in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 is the most severe, reaching 1.07 million, 1.76 million, and 1.07 million barrels per day respectively. The average annual supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 will increase from 820,000 barrels per day and 550,000 barrels per day to 1.06 million barrels per day and 1.13 million barrels per day respectively [9]. 3.1.2 Brent Oil Price Forecast - EIA expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $69 per barrel (previously $66), and to further drop to $58 per barrel in 2026 (previously $59). Although the conflict brings geopolitical risk premiums, increasing inventory will put continuous downward pressure on oil prices [10]. 3.1.3 Global Liquid Fuel Consumption Forecast - EIA expects global liquid fuel consumption to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 (previously 790,000 barrels per day) and 1.06 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 1.06 million barrels per day). Non-OECD Asia is the main driver of demand growth, with India and China contributing significant growth [13]. 3.1.4 Global Oil Production Forecast - EIA expects OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC+ supply growth to drive strong global production growth. Non-OPEC+ will lead the growth in 2025, with an increase of about 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.13 million barrels per day), and the growth rate will slow down to 540,000 barrels per day in 2026 (previously 230,000 barrels per day) [14]. 3.1.5 EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA has comprehensively raised the supply estimates for all quarters, while the demand estimates remain almost unchanged, further intensifying the supply surplus. The expected US production is in a downward cycle, reflecting the impact of falling oil prices on shale oil producers [21]. 3.1.6 Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA expects OECD commercial crude oil inventory supply days to increase under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected that the average supply days will be 61 days in the first half of 2025, increase to 62 days in the second half, and reach 66 days by the end of 2026 [14]. 3.2 OPEC 3.2.1 World Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that global oil demand in 2025 will be 105.13 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day. Non-OECD demand growth will increase to 1.16 million barrels per day, while OECD demand growth will decrease to 140,000 barrels per day. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to be 106.42 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million barrels per day [47][48]. 3.2.2 Non-OPEC+ Oil Supply Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that non-OPEC+ crude oil supply in 2025 will be 54.01 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 810,000 barrels per day. In 2026, it will be 54.74 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 730,000 barrels per day. The growth mainly comes from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [50][51]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Production and Compliance - OPEC+ production in June was 41.559 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 349,000 barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, the other 7 countries in the OPEC+ 8 - country production cut plan generally well implemented the plan in June [52][54]. 3.2.4 OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's July report predicts that global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ NGLs supply will increase by 900,000 barrels per day. To achieve supply - demand balance within the year, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 400,000 barrels per day [57]. 3.2.5 OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - The report provides detailed data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage from 2022 to Q1 2025, showing the changes in OECD oil inventory and consumption patterns [58].