申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250716

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the July USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, with US soybean futures prices breaking down after the report. However, the biodiesel policy will support prices, and US soybeans are expected to trade in a range. In China, the ample supply will limit the upside, and Dalian soybean meal is also expected to trade sideways [3]. - The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, but high - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. With strong demand, especially from India, palm oil prices are expected to be supported. The fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, and the overall market is expected to remain volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8012 for soybean oil, 8708 for palm oil, 9404 for rapeseed oil, 2978 for soybean meal, 2651 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 18, - 40, - 20, - 14, 133, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, - 0.46%, - 3.15%, - 0.47%, 5.28%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., are provided, along with their previous values [1]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4109 for BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), 1003 for CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), 54 for CBOT soybean oil (in cents per pound), and 280 for CBOT soybean meal (in dollars per ton). The price changes were - 6, - 5, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.15%, - 0.47%, 0.76%, and - 0.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions, along with their percentage changes, are provided. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8210 with a 0.24% change [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current and previous values of spot basis and spreads for different products are given, such as the spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, etc., and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, etc. [1]. Import and Crush Profit - The current and previous values of import and crush profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, etc., are presented [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided [1][2]. Industry Information - Brazil Exports: Brazil's estimated exports in July are 1219 million tons of soybeans, 225 million tons of soybean meal, and 460 million tons of corn, which are higher than previous estimates [3]. - Malaysia Palm Oil Exports: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621770 tons, a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month. According to Amspec, the exports were 574121 tons, a 5.29% decrease [3]. - USDA Report on Soybeans: The USDA reduced the estimated planted and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, while keeping the yield per acre unchanged. The production estimate was reduced, but the crush volume was increased, and the export volume was slightly decreased, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory [3]. - India's Vegetable Oil Imports: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6% [3].