申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current external environment is more complex, and the "reciprocal tariff" policy increases global economic uncertainty. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for bond futures prices. However, the "anti-involution" policy drives some commodity prices higher, and the risk appetite in the short-term market increases, which may lead to greater fluctuations in Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose by 0.15%, and its trading volume decreased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short-term market interest rates generally increased. For instance, the SHIBOR 7-day rate rose by 3.1bp, the DR007 rate rose by 4.51bp, and the GC007 rate rose by 1.6bp [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key-term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 1.29bp to 1.66%, and the yield spread between long and short-term (10 - 2) Treasury bonds was 25.12bp [2]. - Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in the US rose by 7bp, the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Germany dropped by 3bp, and the 10Y Treasury bond yield in Japan rose by 1.4bp [2]. Macro News - On July 15, the central bank conducted 342.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net full-caliber injection of 173.5 billion yuan [3]. - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [3]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held from July 14 - 15, deploying seven key tasks for urban work [3]. - With the "white list" policy and the recovery of the real estate market, the debt - resolution work of real estate enterprises is progressing in an orderly manner. The decline in the funds available to real estate development enterprises has narrowed. However, real estate sales area and prices are still falling year - on - year, and greater efforts are needed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [3]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut rates nearly twice by the end of the year [3]. - NVIDIA will resume the sale of H20 chips in China and launch a new GPU for the Chinese market [3]. Industry Information - On July 15, most money market interest rates increased. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for the 1 - day variety rose by 10.6BP to 1.53%, hitting a new high in over a month [3]. - US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly driven by factors such as the increase in risk - aversion sentiment due to Trump's promotion of reciprocal tariffs, higher - than - expected US CPI data in June, concerns about global government fiscal deficits, and tighter market liquidity [3]. Comments and Strategies - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan, and Shibor short - term varieties rose collectively. The market liquidity tightened. To maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, the central bank conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan for the month, a consecutive second - month increase in roll - over operations [3]. - Economic data in June showed that industrial added value, exports, and financial data were better than expected, while consumption and investment growth rates declined year - on - year. The decline in real estate investment growth rate widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The expectation of the introduction of real estate - stabilizing policies increased [3].