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6月水利投资增速放缓,交通投资加速明显
Changjiang Securities·2025-07-16 09:14

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first half of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 9.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment totaled 12.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] - Water conservancy investment growth has slowed down, while transportation investment has accelerated significantly. In June, water conservancy and public facility management investment recorded a negative growth of -5.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of -8.4%. In contrast, transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and road investments [13] - Cement production showed weakness in June, but high-frequency data indicated improvement in July. Cement output in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while July data showed a slight recovery in demand [13] - The overall economic data for the first half of the year showed stable growth, with marginal weakening in investment. However, infrastructure is expected to remain supported throughout the year due to the gradual use of fiscal funds and new policies [13] - Emphasis on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, with potential "real dividend" attributes in certain quality segments and regions [13] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Narrow infrastructure investment was 9.2 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 12.4 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] Sector Performance - Water conservancy investment growth has turned negative, while transportation investment has accelerated. In June, water conservancy investment decreased by 5.2% month-on-month, while transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year [13] Cement Production - Cement production in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with signs of recovery in July [13] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data indicates stable growth, with infrastructure expected to remain supported due to fiscal policies [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, particularly in quality segments and regions [13]