美国6月CPI数据点评：通胀上行，关税冲击初显

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.4%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.8%[2] Market Expectations - Market expectations for June CPI were 2.64% year-on-year and 0.25% month-on-month, which were closely met[5] - Core CPI expectations were 2.95% year-on-year and 0.23% month-on-month, also aligning with actual results[2] Contributing Factors - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and energy prices[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, reflecting volatility due to geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49%, indicating a halt in the continuous decline observed earlier this year[6] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable labor market despite some weakness in service sector employment[6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has improved significantly, with the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan dropping by 1.6 percentage points to 5%[2] - The five-year inflation expectation also decreased to 4%, indicating reduced concerns about inflation among consumers[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months as businesses deplete their inventories[7] - Risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain high, with potential for renewed price increases if trade conditions worsen[7]