海外市场点评：6月美国CPI的降息_份量”

Inflation Data Summary - In June 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%[1] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from 2.8% previously[1] Economic Implications - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, although tariff impacts are becoming more pronounced, particularly in clothing and furniture prices[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in September, driven by the risk of economic stagnation outweighing inflation concerns[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with energy CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year[5] - Core services, particularly housing, have weakened, counteracting gains in other service categories, while automotive prices remain depressed[8] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates continue to suppress housing demand, while the automotive sector faces challenges from both weak demand and competitive pricing pressures from overseas[8] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming more evident, with over half of companies indicating a willingness to pass on 50%-75% of cost increases to consumers[26]