申银万国期货早间策略-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share investment has a high cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. - It is expected that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the IF current - month contract down 4.80, the next - month contract down 7.40, the next - quarter contract down 9.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 9.80. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,238.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,132.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts dropped, with the current - month contract down 16.00, the next - month contract down 18.20, the next - quarter contract down 17.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 18.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 19,124.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 1,830.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts declined, with the current - month contract down 7.40, the next - month contract down 12.60, the next - quarter contract down 15.20, and the alternate - quarter contract down 13.00. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,182.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 5,099.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current - month contract down 28.60, the next - month contract down 29.20, the next - quarter contract down 34.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 31.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 49,078.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,311.00 [1]. 3.2. Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The index rose 0.03%, with a previous value of 4,019.06, a trading volume of 19.104 billion lots, and a total trading value of 353.525 billion yuan [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The index dropped 0.38%, with a previous value of 2,747.23, a trading volume of 4.117 billion lots, and a total trading value of 79.806 billion yuan [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The index fell 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,020.86, a trading volume of 18.928 billion lots, and a total trading value of 226.291 billion yuan [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The index decreased 0.30%, with a previous value of 6,442.83, a trading volume of 26.987 billion lots, and a total trading value of 347.378 billion yuan [1]. - Industry Indexes: The energy sector dropped 0.55%, the raw materials sector decreased 0.89%, the industrial sector fell 0.47%, the optional consumption sector rose 0.93%, the main consumption sector dropped 0.94%, the medical and health sector decreased 0.05%, the real - estate and finance sector fell 0.79%, the information technology sector rose 1.40%, the telecommunications business sector rose 6.09%, and the public utilities sector decreased 0.69% [1]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 was - 9.46, the next - month contract was - 25.86, the next - quarter contract was - 38.46, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 70.46 [1]. - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The basis of the IH current - month contract to the SSE 50 was - 7.03, the next - month contract was - 12.23, the next - quarter contract was - 13.03, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 12.03 [1]. - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The basis of the IC current - month contract to the CSI 500 was - 10.56, the next - month contract was - 69.76, the next - quarter contract was - 125.36, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 248.36 [1]. - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The basis of the IM current - month contract to the CSI 1000 was - 20.83, the next - month contract was - 90.03, the next - quarter contract was - 165.43, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 343.83 [1]. 3.4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, the Small and Medium - Cap Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.60%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.40%, and the DAX Index dropped 0.42% [1]. 3.5. Macroeconomic Information - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The first - quarter GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [2]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14th to 15th. China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [2]. - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with a month - on - month increase in new - home prices, and only Xining had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, deleting 3 technology items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The restricted export of battery cathode material preparation technology was newly added [2]. 3.6. Industry Information - The financial regulatory authority strengthened the supervision of local asset management companies, clarifying prohibited business behaviors [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to formulate mandatory national standards for mobile power sources to set stricter technical standards [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched a special campaign to rectify prominent problems in live - streaming e - commerce [2]. - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement has been launched, with 55 varieties included in the procurement volume reporting scope, and new drugs are not included [2].