Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and positive, with power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may range - fluctuate, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,910 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,644 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 48.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 109,625 tons, and the daily change was 900 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,733 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 9.95 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 113,400 tons, and the daily change was 8,150 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 405,550 tons, and the daily change was 5,275 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 210.81 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 402 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 31.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and the daily change was 11,575 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,095 tons, and the daily change was 125 tons [2]
20250716申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250716
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:21