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贵金属周报(黄金与白银):特朗普“大而美”法案正式生效,新一轮关税谈判“风暴”来袭-20250716
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:18
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices, but in the long - term, due to factors such as the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, economic slowdown, high inflation, and concerns about the US dollar's credit, the anti - inflation property of precious metals will be prominent, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise [5] - The Act's passage has led to an increase in the US debt ceiling, and the deficit may further expand, which also affects the US bond yields and the Fed's monetary policy [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariffs & Trade Negotiations - The announcement of more tariffs by Trump has increased risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the market has not reacted strongly to the new US tariffs in August as the policies are still under negotiation, with many uncertainties [3] Economic Data - The overall impact of US economic data on precious metals is small. The US CPI data in June was in line with or slightly deviated from expectations, with the overall CPI and core CPI showing certain trends [3] Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the possible breakdown of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, the deadline for the Iran nuclear deal, and Trump's planned statement on Russia, support the precious metals market [3][4] "Big and Beautiful" Act and Debt - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act has pushed up the US debt ceiling, and the federal government's fiscal deficit is expected to increase by about $4.1 trillion in the next ten years, and may expand to $5.4 trillion if some tax - cut measures are extended [8] Federal Reserve's Monetary Situation - As of July 9, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse - repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury's cash account decreased. The Treasury plans to rebuild its cash reserve in a more moderate way [11] Inflation Expectations - In June, consumers' one - year inflation expectations decreased to 3%, while three - year and five - year inflation expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [17] US Treasury Yields - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may push up the ten - year US Treasury yield by 50 - 80 basis points, and the 10 - year term premium may rise above 1% [20] Financial Pressure Index - As of July 4, the US OFR financial pressure index increased compared to the previous week, with changes in its sub - indicators [29] Commercial Bank Loans - As of July 2, the weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, with different trends in various types of loans [32] Retail Sales - As of July 8, the US Redbook commercial retail sales weekly annual rate increased, indicating strong consumer spending [34] Mortgage Applications - As of July 9, the US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates increased, and the MBA mortgage application activity index rose by 9.4% [37] Unemployment Data - As of the week ending July 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased to a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims increased to the highest level since the end of 2021 [40] International Bond Yield Differences - The differences in long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany (Japan) have changed, with the 10 - year yield difference between the US and Germany (Japan) showing an upward (downward) trend [43] Exchange Rates - The US dollar is strongly supported by economic data. The euro and the pound have depreciated against the US dollar due to factors such as trade tensions and weak economic performance [47] Volatility Index - The volatility of the US S&P 500 and the gold ETF index has increased [48] Gold Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased month - on - month. The total gold inventory of COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the gold basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [53][56][61] Silver Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased month - on - month. The total silver inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has increased. The domestic silver futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the silver basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [72][75][80] Precious Metal Price Ratios - The gold - to - silver ratio has been repaired recently. In the short - term, it may remain stable, but in the long - term, it may have an upward driving force. The gold - to - oil ratio and the gold - to - copper ratio are above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and short - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [89][92]