瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with limited upside potential. It is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential in the short term. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,475 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 10,736 hands to 194,458 hands, while those of alumina increased by 6,732 hands to 239,364 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 175 tons to 8,050 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,425 tons to 416,975 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, up 0.06 [2]. - The closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract was 19,820 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; its main contract positions increased by 85 hands to 8,393 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - Ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast - aluminum alloy decreased by 530 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 35 yuan to 45 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan to 100 yuan/ton; the LME aluminum premium increased by 1.92 dollars to - 1.48 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The alumina supply - demand balance was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste increased by 50 yuan to 16,100 yuan/ton; the average price in Shandong metal waste was unchanged at 15,700 yuan/ton. China's import of aluminum waste and scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons to 223,095.59 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons to 32,094.07 tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.03% to 97.68% [2]. - The aluminum product production decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons to 48.90 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real - estate climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the automobile production increased by 16.70 million vehicles to 280.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.82% to 8.83%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 9.34%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased by 0.0027% to 8.69%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0094 to 1.15 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In June in the US, CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predicted that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in September [2]. - In the first half of the year in China, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year; national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year, while private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. The average national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year and decreased by 0.16% month - on - month [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 6,605.36 billion yuan, up 5.3% year - on - year. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and that in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year. Quarter - on - quarter, the second - quarter GDP increased by 1.1% [2]. - In June, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with new - home prices rising month - on - month, with Shanghai and Changsha leading with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose month - on - month [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract fluctuated and declined, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply of domestic bauxite was sufficient, and the supply of alumina was expected to remain high in the short term. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was stable with a slight increase, and the inventory increased due to the off - season. The downstream demand was weak, and it is recommended to lightly go long at low prices [2]. 3.10 Cast - Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast - aluminum main contract rebounded slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply and demand of cast - aluminum alloy were both weak, but the cost support was strong. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner [2].