Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The external gold price is oscillating within the range of $3300 - $3400. The increase in long - term yields pushes up real interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero - coupon gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts provides support for gold. For silver, although the demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to decline in 2025, the commodity attribute is strongly supported by the semiconductor industry. Short - term speculative long - position reduction may bring adjustment pressure, and there is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair in the medium term. In operation, the idea of bottom - fishing is still adopted, and short - term correction risks should be noted. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract focuses on the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract focuses on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 776.66 yuan/gram, down 3.74 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9152 yuan/kilogram, down 73 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 200,708 lots, an increase of 2,438 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 430,521 lots, a decrease of 19,594 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 140,521 lots, an increase of 830 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 144,154 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots. The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 28,872 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,212,789 kilograms, a decrease of 10,170 kilograms [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 771.4 yuan/gram, down 3.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9103 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.34 yuan/gram, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 49 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, and the silver ETF position is 14,856.02 tons, a decrease of 110.22 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, and the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, a decrease of 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 54.84 tons, and the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 54.83 tons, and the total global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.08%, down 0.72% [2] Industry News - Trump and the Indonesian President reached an agreement, and Indonesia will open the whole market to the US for the first time. The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year. The US Treasury Secretary said that the selection process of the next Fed Chairman has officially started. The EU will postpone the implementation of trade counter - measures to August 6 if the trade negotiation with the US fails. The expectation of interest rate cuts weakens the attractiveness of the US dollar and supports the US - dollar - denominated gold. The 30 - year US Treasury yield has reached a two - month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and after the new tariffs take effect on August 1, different situations will have different impacts on the gold price [2]
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250716