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瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250716
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated weakly. In the macro - aspect, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; the factory inventory increased and the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory of 5.4037 million tons declined slightly again, and the apparent demand decreased by 33,700 tons. Overall, the sluggish real - estate data affected market confidence, the speculative demand for rebar was not active, and the trading performance was mediocre. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA continued to adjust downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on fluctuations, and pay attention to the support around 3090 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the position volume was 2,137,057 lots, down 16,795 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 15,823 lots, down 7,662 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 96,689 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 154 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, up 0.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 97.53%, up 10.19 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 898,700 tons, down 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 47.49%, down 0.98 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 60.42%, down 3.12 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 16, many places such as Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan issued red high - temperature warnings, and the local temperature in some areas of Wuhan, Jingmen, and Huanggang in Hubei could reach over 41°C. From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]