Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:32Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish with fluctuations. Continued attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; the position of the main contract was 96,814 lots, a decrease of 144 lots; the number of apple warehouse receipts was 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 7,606 lots, a decrease of 1,200 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) was 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price was 9.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.82 million tons; the storage ratio of Shandong apples was 0.13, a decrease of 0.01; the storage ratio of Shaanxi apples was 0.06, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 51.525 million US dollars, a decrease of 25.529 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2,201,050.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan; the weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 9.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan; the weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas was 6.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons was 3.94 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 7.8, with no change; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 11, a decrease of 0.8; the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 19.4, a decrease of 0.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 17.29%, an increase of 0.45%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 17.3%, an increase of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of apples was 15.15%, with no change [2] Industry News - On July 16, 2025, there were few remaining apples in the western production areas, mainly concentrated in the Luochuan area, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was okay with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining fruit farmer's goods were mainly large fruits, and the medium and small fruits had basically been cleared. The trading speed of large fruits was slow, and transactions were mainly through bargaining. Merchant - owned goods were mainly self - picked and shipped, with little change in the market [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of apple cold - storage in the national main production areas was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons compared to the previous week. The inventory turnover speed changed little compared to the previous week and was still slower than the same period last year. The storage ratio in the Shandong production area was 13.21%, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed was slower year - on - year. The storage ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 5.72%, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week, and the inventory turnover was slightly faster than the previous week [2]