瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report suggests that due to the increase in zinc ore imports and processing fees, along with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, increasing production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously shut - down capacity, supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices have adjusted widely, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Domestic social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories are rising, increasing pressure on zinc prices. Technically, with declining positions, both long and short positions are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.44%, down 0.78 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.74%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, remaining below expectations for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held, stating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [3]