Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:33Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in nickel supply cost and the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply side is facing cost - upside - down pressure, leading to increased production cuts by steel mills. Domestic anti - involution measures may help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to further decline. On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure, and hesitant downstream buyers. Domestic inventory de - stocking is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking performance after production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions, and the MA10 support level should be monitored. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The recommended operation is to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,161 lots, down 595 lots; the main contract position is 100,817 lots, up 46,026 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,872 tons, down 119 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, up 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, down 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, up 18,500 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2] Industry News - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%; the month - on - month increase was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 0.1%. The increase was mainly due to rising energy prices. The EU Trade Commissioner said that although the negotiations are quite close in principle, there are still huge differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, indicating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [2]