玉米：弱势不改

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of corn futures is under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is turning pessimistic. The CS2509 contract of corn starch is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750, following the trend of corn [18][98][156]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review CBOT Corn - As of July 14, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 418.5 cents per bushel, up 14.75 cents per bushel week-on-week. As of July 8, the net long position of managed funds was -203,861 contracts, an increase of 2,602 contracts week-on-week [6]. Domestic Corn Futures - As of July 14, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2,302 yuan per ton, down 1.03% week-on-week. The contract's open interest was 1,654,874 contracts, up 5.86% week-on-week. Negative factors include the sporadic listing of southern spring corn, large - scale auctions of imported corn, and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use. Positive factors are low imports, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and the bottom - support provided by the minimum purchase price of wheat [13]. - As of July 14, the number of corn registered warrants was 194,126 contracts, still significantly higher than in previous years. The average daily trading volume last week was 660,800 contracts [14]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts shows a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with last week, futures prices have generally declined, with the C09 contract showing a significant decline. The C09 - C11 spread has continued to weaken, reaching 30 yuan per ton as of July 14, a decrease of 13 yuan per ton week-on-week [18]. - As of July 14, the national average spot price of corn was 2,417.45 yuan per ton, down 0.62% week-on-week. The basis was 115.45 yuan per ton, up 8.9 yuan per ton week-on-week [23]. Corn Starch - As of July 14, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2,647 yuan per ton, down 1.23% week-on-week. The open interest was 331,542 contracts, up 18.91% week-on-week [104]. - The number of corn starch registered warrants decreased to 18,899 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 4,023 contracts. The average daily trading volume last week was 139,800 contracts, up 6.08% week-on-week [107]. - As of July 14, the average price of Grade - 1 national standard corn starch was 2,874 yuan per ton, down 0.66% week-on-week. The basis was 227 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan per ton week-on-week [111]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts have declined compared with last week, with the 09 contract showing a larger decline, presenting a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. As of July 14, the spread between the corn starch and corn futures 09 contract was 345 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton from last week [117]. Part II: Fundamental Analysis Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - USDA's July 2025/26 balance sheet reduced the beginning inventory by 2 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyi.com's July balance sheet increased the 2025 corn consumption by 2 million tons, with no changes to other items [29][30]. US Corn Growth - As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 34%, up from 18% the previous week, and the dough stage rate was 7%, up from 3% the previous week [32]. Corn Imports - Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.9%. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a 93.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. In April, imports of substitute crops such as wheat, barley, and sorghum were 2.09 million tons, a 52.1% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative imports in 2025 were 6 million tons, a 60.54% year-on-year decrease [37]. Corn Auction - Since September last year, the net purchase volume of imported corn auctions has been 1.66 million tons [42]. Corn Inventory - Port corn inventories are seasonally decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.596 million tons, down 4.70% from June 27. The domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 886,000 tons, down 14.89%, and the foreign trade inventory was 13,000 tons, up 333.33% [45]. - The corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises increased slightly to 4.436 million tons as of July 11, 2025, up 1.88% from July 4. The available days of corn inventory for feed enterprises decreased slightly to 31.58 days, down 1.19% from July 4 [53]. Corn Consumption - The corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, it was 1.1578 million tons, down 1.57% from July 4 [59]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.7 million tons, a 0.6% month-on-month increase and a 6.9% year-on-year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 39.4%, a 3.1 - percentage - point year-on-year increase [67]. Pig Market - In June, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month, but the month - on - month growth rate narrowed. The sales volume of piglet and sow feed decreased year - on - year [68]. - The hog price fluctuated, and the profit from pig farming was limited. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19 yuan per kilogram. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 160 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 3 yuan per head [77]. - The hog - to - corn ratio was weakly stable. As of July 14, 2025, the Steel Union hog - to - corn ratio was 6.08, down 0.33% week-on-week [83]. Wheat - Corn Substitution - The wheat price remained stable, and the decline in the corn price widened the wheat - corn price spread, but it was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of wheat for feed use was relatively high [85]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 14, 2025, the spread in Heilongjiang Suihua was 490 yuan per ton, up 11.36% week-on-week, and the spread in Shandong Weifang was 450 yuan per ton, down 2.17% week-on-week [123]. - The operating rate and production of corn starch enterprises decreased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the operating rate was 50.14%, down 1.06 percentage points from July 4, and the production was 259,400 tons, down 2.08% from July 4 [129]. - The losses of corn starch enterprises have increased. - The corn starch inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, 2025, the national inventory of major enterprises was 1.337 million tons, up 1.83% from July 4 [140]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 235,400 tons, down 9.77% from July 4 [146]. Part III: Future Outlook International Market - CBOT corn futures were stable. The expected high yield in the US restrained bottom - fishing buying and short - covering operations. In the second week of July 2025, Brazil shipped 338,400 tons of corn in 9 working days, a 75.66% decrease in the average daily shipping volume compared to July last year. As of the week ending July 10, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,287,159 tons [96]. Domestic Market - This week, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for corn growth, while areas such as Xinjiang, North China, and Huanghuai are experiencing high temperatures and low rainfall, which is not conducive to corn growth. In the next 10 days, some areas in Northeast China may experience short - term waterlogging, and areas such as Shaanxi, Hebei, and Huanghuai may face drought [97]. - Corn futures prices are under downward pressure. Positive factors include the minimum purchase price of wheat in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui, nearly exhausted farmers' remaining grain, and continued growth in feed sales in June. Negative factors are the increasing listing of spring corn in Hubei, the start of imported corn auctions, and the high substitution ratio of wheat for feed use [98]. - Corn starch futures prices are also under downward pressure, following the trend of corn. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2550 - 2750 [156].