Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:40Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased in position and consolidated. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there's no need to worry about the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the negotiation situation is "good", with talks expected in the next few weeks. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. Factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 0.63 tons. Apparent demand decreased slightly but remained above 3.2 million tons. Overall, hot-rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand has strong resilience, and tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position volume was 1,549,973 lots, down 16,803 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 21,898 lots, down 1,037 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,501 tons, down 2,086 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou was 3,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the billet inventory in Hebei was 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.87%, down 0.40%. The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 3.2314 million tons, down 50,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.55%, down 1.28%. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory of sample steel mills was 778,100 tons, down 5,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.6775 million tons, up 11,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.51 million units, up 331,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 9.412 million units, down 239,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia. Indonesian goods exported to the U.S. will pay a 19% tariff, while U.S. exports are tariff - free. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. After deducting the impact of price factors, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 5.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in June decreased by 0.12% [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]