Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebound [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Uptrend slowing [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebound [2] - Urea: Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ expansion [1][3][5] - LPG: Cost - end drag from falling oil prices leads to weakness [7][9] - L: Cost support weakens, and it shows a weak sideways trend [11][12] - PP: Cost support fades, with a weak sideways trend due to factors like new capacity [15][17] - PVC: Market sentiment weakens, with a short - term long and long - term short strategy [19][21] - PX: Tight supply - demand balance vs. falling oil prices, with a bearish sideways trend [23][24] - PTA/PR: Supply - demand expected to be loose, with attention on shorting opportunities on rallies [25][26] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory vs. loose supply - demand expectations, focus on shorting opportunities [28][29] - Glass: Inventory continues to decline, supported by moving averages [32][33] - Soda ash: Difficult inventory reduction, weak rebound in the futures market [34][36] - Caustic soda: Liquid chlorine subsidy narrows, and the uptrend slows [37][39] - Methanol: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, bearish on rebound [40] - Urea: Supply pressure is large, with a bearish outlook [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end oil price decline and sufficient raw materials lead to a bearish outlook [2] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, and supply is under pressure [2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market situation: International oil prices fell overnight. WTI dropped 2.40%, Brent 0.72%, and SC 0.51% [4]. - Fundamentals: In supply, Russian exports decreased, and US rig count dropped. In demand, China's imports increased, and IEA adjusted demand growth forecasts. In inventory, US commercial crude inventory rose [5]. - Strategy: Short - term, light - position shorting with call option protection. Long - term, the price range is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [6]. LPG - Market situation: On July 15, PG main contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - Fundamentals: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. PDH device profit decreased, and inventories increased [9]. - Strategy: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 4050 - 4150 yuan/ton [10]. L - Market situation: Futures and spot prices both declined. North China basis was - 71 (compared to - 33 previously) [12]. - Fundamentals: Cost support weakens, supply pressure increases, and demand is in the off - season. New device production is expected in July - August [13]. - Strategy: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 7150 - 7300 yuan/ton [14]. PP - Market situation: East China basis was 42 (compared to - 7 previously). The market is expected to be weak [16]. - Fundamentals: Cost support fades, new capacity is planned in the third quarter, and exports are expected to maintain high growth [17]. - Strategy: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [17]. PVC - Market situation: Changzhou basis was - 125 (compared to + 35 previously). The market is expected to be weak [20]. - Fundamentals: Upward drive is insufficient, inventory is rising, and exports are weakening. New devices are starting up [21]. - Strategy: Short - term long and long - term short, with a focus on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [21]. PX - Market situation: On July 11, East China spot was 7120 yuan/ton, and PX09 closed at 6694 yuan/ton [23]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, inventory is high, and it follows cost fluctuations [24]. - Strategy: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 6660 - 6760 yuan/ton [24]. PTA - Market situation: On July 11, East China was 4715 yuan/ton, and TA09 closed at 4700 yuan/ton [25]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing [26]. - Strategy: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 4670 - 4730 yuan/ton [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market situation: On July 11, East China spot was 4383 yuan/ton, and EG09 closed at 4305 yuan/ton [28]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weakening, and low inventory provides some support [29]. - Strategy: Pay attention to shorting opportunities, with a focus on the range of 4270 - 4340 yuan/ton [30]. Glass - Market situation: Spot prices increased, and the futures market pulled back. Basis widened [33]. - Fundamentals: Macro - policy expectations, inventory decreased, and cost increased. Spot prices were raised [33]. - Strategy: Buy on pullback, with a focus on the range of 1050 - 1080 yuan/ton [33]. Soda Ash - Market situation: Heavy - alkali spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined. Basis widened [35]. - Fundamentals: Supply is at a high level, inventory reduction is difficult, and policy speculation has weakened [36]. - Strategy: Narrow - range sideways, with a focus on the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2]. Caustic Soda - Market situation: Spot prices were stable, the futures market was flat, basis strengthened, and warehouse receipts decreased [38]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure may ease, demand from alumina is recovering, and inventory decreased [39]. - Strategy: Hold long positions cautiously, with a focus on the range of 2480 - 2530 yuan/ton [39]. Methanol - Market situation: On July 11, East China spot was 2381 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2370 yuan/ton [40]. - Fundamentals: Device maintenance vs. MTO demand negative feedback, and inventory may start to accumulate [40]. - Strategy: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 2365 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Market situation: Supply pressure is large, and demand is weak. Exports are growing [2]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, and cost provides some support [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies, with a focus on the range of 1735 - 1765 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - Market situation: Cost - end oil price pressure, supply decreased slightly, and inventory increased [2]. - Fundamentals: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is relatively sufficient, and demand is affected by weather [2]. - Strategy: Light - position shorting, with a focus on the range of 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton [2]. Propylene - Market situation: Cost - end oil price decline, supply is under pressure [2]. - Fundamentals: Cost support weakens, new capacity is about to be put into production [2]. - Strategy: Bearish on rebound, with a focus on the range of 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton [2].
中辉期货：化工早报-20250716
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-16 09:40