交银国际每日晨报-20250716

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in Q2 to 5.2% compared to 5.4% in Q1, indicating resilience amid global economic disruptions [3][4] - The contribution from consumption, investment, and net exports improved in Q2, with consumption at 52.3%, investment at 24.7%, and net exports at 23%, showing better internal demand coordination [3] - Industrial production accelerated to 6.8% in June, while consumption growth slowed to 4.8%, reflecting short-term disturbances affecting economic trends [3][4] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The valuation of Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceutical sector remains attractive, with leading companies' forward price-to-sales ratios aligning with historical averages, despite being slightly higher than comparable US firms [5] - Domestic capital continues to increase holdings in Hong Kong stocks, while foreign investment in innovative pharmaceuticals is at a low point, indicating potential for future growth [5] - The upcoming commercial insurance innovative drug directory is expected to create a more favorable pricing environment, potentially leading to significant growth in premium and payment scales for innovative drugs [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - Li Ning's Q2 sales growth was below expectations, with a low single-digit increase in retail revenue, indicating a weakening recovery trend compared to Q1 [8][9] - JD's Q2 losses from its food delivery segment are expected to significantly impact overall profits, with a projected 60% year-on-year decline in profits, although retail performance remains stable [10] - Adjustments to Li Ning's revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 reflect a cautious outlook, with expected revenues revised down by 0.3-5.8% to between 29.0-30.95 billion RMB [9]