农产品月度策略跟踪（第5期）-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - 资金面动态: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - 各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - 农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].