OPEC供应回升叠加库存压力，原油震荡格局延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the crude oil market will continue its oscillating pattern in the short - term, with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side factors such as the环比 growth of OPEC+ output and the seasonal restart of US refineries ease the risk of geopolitical supply disruptions. However, demand - side issues like gasoline inventory build - up and reduced imports from India limit the upside potential of prices. The accumulation of inventory strengthens the expectation of a marginal weakening in supply - demand balance. If the inventory draw during the US summer driving season falls short of expectations, it may trigger a further price correction [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On July 15, 2025, the price of the SC main contract closed at 518.2 yuan/barrel, down 9.3 yuan/barrel (-1.76%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 66.83 dollars/barrel and 69.13 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads weakened by 1.34 dollars, and the SC continuous - contango 3 spread dropped from 26.0 yuan/barrel to 24.3 yuan/barrel [2]. - Supply - side Analysis: According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, OPEC's crude oil production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 2,723.5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE increasing production and Iran and Libya reducing output. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day. US API data on July 16 showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput [3]. - Demand - side Analysis: OPEC maintains the 2025 demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day. The US gasoline inventory unexpectedly increased by 1.931 million barrels in the week ending July 11, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased, indicating weaker - than - expected terminal consumption [4]. - Inventory - side Analysis: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 839,000 barrels, and the OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels, showing overall inventory pressure. The heating oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels, suggesting a structural differentiation in energy consumption [5]. - Price Trend Judgment: In the short - term, the market will remain range - bound with increasing upward pressure. Supply - side growth and refinery restarts ease supply risks, but demand - side issues and inventory build - up limit price increases. If the US summer driving season fails to reduce inventory as expected, prices may correct further [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On July 15, 2025, SC, WTI, and Brent futures prices decreased, while the OPEC basket price remained unchanged. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - contango 3 all decreased. The US dollar index increased, and the S&P 500 and DAX indices decreased. US commercial crude oil, Cushing, and strategic reserve inventories all increased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly [8]. - Fuel Oil: On July 15, 2025, most fuel oil futures and spot prices showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The Singapore and US distillate inventories also had corresponding changes, and the spreads between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore and China also showed different trends [9]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On July 16, US API data showed an increase in crude oil imports and refinery throughput. According to the OPEC monthly report on July 15, the production of many OPEC member countries changed in June, with the overall OPEC production increasing by 220,000 barrels per day. Iraq plans to increase the output of the Himreen oilfield to 60,000 barrels per day [10][11]. - Demand: The OPEC monthly report expects global crude oil demand to be 106.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 107.52 million barrels per day in 2026, and maintains the 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [12]. - Inventory: In the week ending July 11, US API heating oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly, and crude oil inventory increased. The OECD inventory in May increased by 34.5 million barrels to 2.77 billion barrels. The warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures remained unchanged [13]. - Market Information: The crude oil futures price decreased, and the market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was calm. The fuel oil main contract price dropped. The market is concerned about possible US restrictions on European oil, and after the implementation of restrictions, the crude oil price may correct but will still maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US and global oil rig numbers, US refinery operating rates and throughput, and various inventory data, etc., to visually display the changes in the industrial chain data [15][17][19]