碳酸锂资金情绪背离基本面，反弹动能不足转入震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - Market Summary: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Price Changes on July 15: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - Other Price and Data Changes: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - Downstream Consumption: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - Industry News: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]