有色金属日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, signifying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper reduced positions significantly, with the price fluctuating narrowly around 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 78,060 yuan. After the contract change, the premium in Shanghai was 95 yuan and 60 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was 780 yuan [2] - Overnight, the US CPI rose year - on - year, and the impact of tariffs was gradually emerging. The Fed was likely to "stand still" at the end of the month. Traders were advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot premium of 90 yuan in East China. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased by over 30,000 tons on Monday. The price broke the upward trend line, and there was short - term callback pressure [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan, with weak demand. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the industry had negative profits but some resilience [3] - The upward trend of alumina spot prices eased. The domestic operating capacity of alumina returned to a historical high, but the warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE was only over 20,000 tons, and the futures were unlikely to fall deeply [3] Zinc - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation, and the demand side had continuous negative feedback. The zinc price was weak, and the weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased to 231,600 lots, with a precipitation of 4.59 billion yuan in funds. The term structure flattened [4] - The expectation of increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. The key domestic meeting did not bring surprises, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds was continued [4] Aluminum - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation. LME aluminum broke below the 2000 - dollar mark, dragging down the domestic market. Technically, there was still room for downward adjustment [6] - The aluminum price was weak, and downstream buyers were waiting and watching. The supply difference between northern and southern electrolytic lead smelters still existed, and recycled lead holders were reluctant to sell. The refined - scrap price difference remained flat [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel market was in the traditional off - season, with weak spot trading mainly relying on low - price goods from traders [7] - The inventory of nickel iron increased to 37,000 tons, the inventory of refined nickel increased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 12,000 tons to 991,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel still had room to rebound, and traders were advised to wait for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line. The spot tin price was reduced by 1000 yuan to 263,600 yuan, with a premium of 230 yuan over the 2508 contract [8] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in June decreased to 4465 tons month - on - month. The strategy of short - selling was continued [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded with active trading and high positions. The spot trading activity was low, and downstream buyers were not willing to stock up [9] - The total market inventory reached a recent high of 141,000 tons, and traders continued to replenish stocks by 2430 tons to 41,000 tons. The price of Australian ore was 678 dollars. Short positions could be gradually established [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream polysilicon production in July increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants continued to rise [10] - The supply side had some constraints, and the fundamentals showed marginal improvement. The price was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and the change of warehouse receipts should be monitored [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 yuan/ton. The spot price of N - type re -投料 was 45,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream price increase began to transmit costs [11] - The current futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. The short - term trend was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [11]