2025 年 6 月美国物价数据点评：通胀温和回升，美联储仍可观望

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]