Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - Asphalt: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - Alumina: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - Zinc: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - Lead: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - Tin: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - Carbonate Lithium: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - Industrial Silicon: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - Polysilicon: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - Iron Ore: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - Glass: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - Urea: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - Methanol: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - Pure Benzene: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - Styrene: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - Polypropylene & Plastic: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - PX & PTA: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - Short - fiber & Bottle - chip: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - Soybean No.1: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - Corn: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - Live Pig: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - Egg: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - Cotton: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - Sugar: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - Apple: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - Timber: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - Pulp: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - Treasury Bond Futures: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line): Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]
综合晨报-20250716
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-16 11:07