国投期货软商品日报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a relatively clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (suggests a bearish bias but low operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicates a short - term balanced state with low operability) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall soft commodities market shows different trends. Some commodities like cotton and sugar have supply - demand and inventory factors affecting their prices, while others such as apples are influenced by new - season production estimates and seasonal demand. The market requires close monitoring of supply - demand changes, production data, and macro - trade factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly. The cotton industry chain has stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. The price of pure cotton yarn followed the raw materials but with weak momentum. Inner - land spinning mills' operation rate decreased, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 62.89 million tons from the end of May. The inventory is expected to be tight. Macroeconomic factors such as Sino - US trade details need attention. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern sugarcane yield per hectare is expected to be 72 tons, down 6.5% year - on - year. However, due to a high sugar - making ratio, the sugar production is expected to exceed 4000 million tons. In China, as of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 514.06 million tons, up 61.44 million tons year - on - year, with a sales rate of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points, and industrial inventory at 132.44 million tons, down 33.08 million tons. The US sugar trend is downward, so the upside of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. Expect short - term price fluctuations and stay on the sidelines [3]. Apple - Futures prices fluctuated weakly. Spot prices were stable. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and cold - storage apples' prices are weakening due to high inventory - holder selling and low demand. As of July 11, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 82.44 million tons, down 40.95% year - on - year. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western region was affected by cold snaps and winds, the impact on yield is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. With sufficient flower quantity, the production estimate is bearish. Maintain a bearish trading strategy [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU&MR rose slightly, and BR fluctuated. Domestic natural rubber prices were stable with a slight increase, and synthetic rubber prices were stable. The global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly. Some plants are restarting or reducing loads. The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires rebounded. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 63.64 million tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rose to 1.28 million tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory rose to 2.36 million tons. With increasing supply and inventory and trade risks, stay on the sidelines [6]. Paper Pulp - The pulp futures price dropped slightly. Spot prices were stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 217.9 million tons, down 3.4 million tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decrease. China's pulp imports in June were 303.1 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 1857.8 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low, and sentiment has been boosted. Temporarily stay on the sidelines or conduct short - term operations [7]. Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In July, New Zealand's log quotes rose, supporting the futures price. Port daily outbound volume decreased significantly last week, showing off - season features. As of July 11, the national port log inventory was 322 million cubic meters, down 1 million cubic meters. The inventory is low, and the pressure is small. Although there are supply - side positives, the lack of demand in the off - season limits price rebounds. Stay on the sidelines [8]