黑色金属日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by weak domestic demand and high exports, with the "anti - involution" influencing the market, and short - term fluctuations are expected. The follow - up focus is on terminal demand and policy changes [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with finished products in the short term, and the room for continued rebound is limited due to the long - term supply - demand loosening trend [3]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by sufficient carbon element supply and high iron - making water in the off - season. Their prices mainly follow the steel trend, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact [4][5]. - Silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy prices are under pressure, mainly following the thread trend, with limited ability to rise [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread demand was weakly stable, production decreased slightly, and inventory slowly declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production decreased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Iron - making water production declined slowly but remained high. Domestic demand was weak, and exports were relatively high. The market was affected by "anti - involution" with a cautious attitude, and short - term fluctuations were expected [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose. Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals rebounded to a high level but were lower than last year. Port inventory decreased slightly. Terminal demand was weak in the off - season, but steel mills had profits and were reluctant to cut production. Iron - making water decreased slightly but remained high. The market was expected to fluctuate with finished products, and the rebound space was limited [3]. Coke - The coke futures market fluctuated downward. Coking price increases were expected to be fully implemented this week, but the increase was smaller than expected, and profits were meager. Daily production declined, inventory remained almost unchanged, and traders' purchasing willingness increased. Coke prices mainly followed the steel trend [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market fluctuated downward. The Sino - Mongolian border resumed customs clearance, coal mine production increased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Coking coal prices mainly followed the steel trend [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated downward. Due to previous production cuts, inventory decreased, but weekly production increased, and inventory began to rise. Manganese ore inventory increased in the long - term and was low in the short - term, and mines were more willing to hold prices. It was expected that prices would be under pressure [6]. Silicon Ferroalloy - The silicon ferroalloy futures market fluctuated downward. Iron - making water production decreased slightly but remained above 239. A large northern steel mill's July tender inquiry price was 5400 yuan/ton, and the tender quantity increased. Export demand was stable, and secondary demand was high. Supply decreased, market transactions were average, and inventory decreased, but production - end inventory began to accumulate. Prices were expected to be under pressure [7].