铜日报：铜价承压低位震荡，供需宽松主导市场-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation within the range of 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors such as smelting capacity release and inventory accumulation pressure suppress prices. The demand - side only has marginal support from power infrastructure, but its realization is lagged. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks on the macro - level suppress market risk appetite, resulting in insufficient upward drivers for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of domestic policies and changes in overseas liquidity expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: On July 15, the price of the SHFE main contract slightly declined to 78,330 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price also dropped to 9,643.5 US dollars/ton. The foreign market discount significantly widened, and the liquidity of the overseas spot market was under pressure. In the domestic market, the premium copper remained at par, but the spot discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper widened to - 50 yuan/ton and - 115 yuan/ton respectively, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1]. - Positions and Transactions: The LME copper position slightly shrank, the COMEX copper inventory increased to 236,454 short tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons to 109,625 tons. The spot trading activity was insufficient, and the market's divergence on the long - term supply - demand expectations intensified [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: Domestic smelting capacity is continuously being released, and raw material supply is relatively loose. However, CSPT suspended the processing fee guidance for the third quarter, which may squeeze smelter profits and inhibit the short - term capacity release rhythm [2]. - Demand Side: The demand expectation of domestic power infrastructure is boosted by the UHV project plan, but short - term downstream consumption is weak. The expansion of spot discounts and fluctuations in monthly spreads indicate a low actual purchasing sentiment, especially in the construction and consumer electronics sectors where demand has not improved [2]. - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories are continuously accumulating. The LME inventory suddenly increased by 47% to 34,379 tons, and the SHFE inventory also increased to 147,600 tons. The inventory accumulation pressure is prominent, confirming that the current supply - demand structure is relatively loose [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | July 15, 2025 | July 14, 2025 | July 9, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 78,300 | 78,600 | 78,810 | - 300 | - 0.38% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 165 | 0 | 0 | 165 | - | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 110 | - 50 | - 50 | 160 | 320.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 15 | - 115 | - 120 | 130 | 113.04% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 48 | - 62 | - 22 | 14 | 22.23% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 77,930 | 78,330 | 78,470 | - 400 | - 0.51% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 9,658 | 9,644 | 9,663 | 14 | 0.15% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,133 | 34,379 | 23,307 | 15,754 | 45.82% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 110,475 | 109,625 | 108,725 | 850 | 0.78% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 238,264 | 236,454 | 234,204 | 1,810 | 0.77% | short tons | [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 15: The 150,000 - ton/year anode copper transformation project of Liangshan Mining is in the pre - work stage; the 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project of Liangshan Copper is accelerating, aiming to start trial production by the end of the year [6]. - On July 14: In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - On July 14: CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee at the second - quarter general manager's meeting on July 11, due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fees [6]. - On July 14: From January to June, Chifeng Yuntong completed 53.19% of the annual target for electrolytic copper, 51.45% for sulfuric acid, 98.46% for gold, and 66.79% for silver. The safety and environmental protection situation remained stable, achieving the goal of "half of the time, half of the tasks" [7]. - On July 11: The monthly spread widened, and spot copper in many places was traded at a discount. According to the SHFE warehouse receipt report, the copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons on that day, with 377 tons, 400 tons, and 801 tons increases in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu respectively [7]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [8][12][13][14][16].