冠通期货PVC：震荡下行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience a downward trend in the short - term and remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply - side pressure exists due to upcoming new capacity and limited further decline in the operating rate. The demand side is weak as the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and export is restricted by policies and seasons. The high - price spot transactions are difficult, and the inventory pressure is large [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and it is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate is low, and procurement is cautious. The BIS policy in India is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. The social inventory has increased, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although the PVC maintenance is increasing in July, the operating rate is expected to have limited room for further decline, and new capacity is about to be put into production. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract decreased by 1.14% to close at 4934 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22748 hands in open interest to 982527 hands. The lowest price was 4922 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4978 yuan/ton, staying above the 20 - day moving average [2] Basis - On July 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2509 contract was 4934 yuan/ton. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, strengthening by 16 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97% due to the maintenance of some devices. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into production in 2025, and about 110,000 tons/year is expected to be put into production in July. On the demand side, from January to June 2025, the real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas all decreased significantly year - on - year. The investment and sales growth rates further declined. The 30 - city commercial housing transaction area decreased by 37.32% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 10, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% to 623,600 tons, 34.15% lower than the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level [4][5]