美国2025年6月CPI点评

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. June 2025 CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations[3] - The core CPI for June rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%, while year-on-year it recorded 2.9%, in line with expectations[3] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices surged, with WTI crude oil averaging an 11% increase month-on-month, contributing to a 0.9% rise in energy CPI[3] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the largest rise since February, and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, the highest since July 2023[3] - Clothing CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year decline of only 0.5%, indicating a recovery trend[3] Housing and Automotive Prices - Housing services CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous value of 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%[3] - New car CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while used car prices, as indicated by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, rose by 1.6% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year, suggesting potential future inflation in automotive prices[3] Market Reactions and Risks - The CPI data prompted a quick rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index, reflecting investor concerns about sustained inflation[3] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on inflation, with risks of higher inflation in Q3 2025[3]