美国经济通胀可能小幅反弹

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]