美国6月CPI点评：美国通胀“发令枪”

Overview - The U.S. June core CPI data was slightly weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% against a market expectation of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to an expected 0.3%[2] - The overall CPI for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations[2] Inflation Drivers - The main contributors to the CPI rebound were rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services[22] - The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases[22] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, indicating a warming in core goods inflation, with clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment showing upward trends[24] - However, the used car CPI fell by -0.7% month-on-month, although future trends may indicate a rebound according to the Manheim used car index[24] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see further inflationary pressures, particularly in the third quarter, which is expected to be a critical verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects[35] - The combination of rising tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from U.S. companies suggests that inflation may enter an upward trajectory[35] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflationary pressures in the third quarter[39] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector employment slowing down, which may influence the Fed's decision-making[39] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[41]