煤焦早报：基差修复近尾声，煤焦震荡运行-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] Core Viewpoints - The base spread repair is nearing its end, and coal and coke are oscillating [1] - The market tends to trade on policy expectations due to the combination of economic pressure and policy relaxation expectations. The short - term bullish sentiment remains strong [5] - For coking coal, although mine production is increasing, downstream restocking enthusiasm persists. For coke, the supply - demand gap remains despite a decline in both supply and demand, and industry chain profits are expected to transfer from steel to furnace materials [5] - It is recommended to hold long positions in J09 and hold long positions in JM09 while reducing positions at high prices in a timely manner [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Spot and Futures: Spot prices are rising, while futures are oscillating. The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 950 yuan/ton (+23), and the active contract is 911.5 yuan/ton (-8.5). The base spread is 58.5 yuan/ton (+31.5), and the September - January spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-7) [2] - Supply and Demand: Mine production is resuming, while demand is contracting. The operating rate of 523 mines is 85.52% (+1.7), and that of 110 coal - washing plants is 62.32% (+2.6). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48) [2] - Inventory: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 377.18 million tons (-32.43), and that of coal - washing plants is 197.07 million tons (-17.91). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 782.93 million tons (-6.76), that of 230 coking enterprises is 752.44 (+36), and port inventory is 321.64 million tons (+12.37) [2] Coke - Spot and Futures: Spot price increases have partially taken effect, and futures are rising. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (-0), and some steel mills in Tianjin have accepted the first - round spot price increase of 50 yuan/ton. The active contract is 1514 yuan/ton (-11). The base spread is - 202 yuan/ton (+11), and the September - January spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton (-2.5) [3] - Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand have declined, but the gap remains. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.72% (-0.48). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.9% (-0.39), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.3981 million tons (-1.04) [3] - Inventory: Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 59.58 million tons (-2.02), that of 247 steel mills is 637.8 million tons (+0.31), and port inventory is 200.08 million tons (+8.96) [3] Strategy and Market Environment - Tariff and Policy: Trump extended the reciprocal tariff suspension period to July 31. China's reciprocal tariffs will start on August 12. The market is mainly focused on risk prevention regarding tariffs [4] - Social Financing: In June, the new social financing was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, up 0.2% from the previous month [1] - Anti - Involution: The anti - involution campaign is ongoing, and this round of capacity reduction may be more moderate and longer - term [4]