银河期货花生日报-20250716

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short - term due to supply tightness and weak downstream demand, while peanut oil spot prices are stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mill pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 is in a bottom - range shock in the short - term and is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to expected increases in planting area and decreases in planting costs [4][9] - For trading strategies, 10 peanut is in high - level shock, so short - term observation is recommended; for the month - spread, the strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage on peanut 10 - 1 when the price is low; for options, sell pk510 - C - 8800 [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 8016, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 11 (up 37.50%) and an open interest of 146 (down 1.35%) - PK510 closed at 8232, up 40 (0.49%), with a trading volume of 33,463 (down 38.80%) and an open interest of 93,333 (up 1.59%) - PK601 closed at 8046, up 36 (0.45%), with a trading volume of 1,181 (down 32.17%) and an open interest of 8,722 (up 2.12%) [2] - Spot and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 9200, 8600, and 8600 respectively, with no change; the price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3300, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 2820 (down 10); the price of peanut oil was 15000, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8150, both with no change [2] - The basis in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi was 968, 368, and 368 respectively; the difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was 3, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6850 [2] - The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250, with no change [2] - Spreads - The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 24 (up 20), the spread of PK04 - PK10 was - 216, and the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 186 (up 4) [2] Part 2: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China have declined. In the Northeast, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin, and Changtu, Liaoning, was 4.4 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; in the Henan production area, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 4.45 - 4.55 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin; the price in Junan, Shandong, was 4.1 yuan/jin, remaining stable. The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton, remaining stable [4] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills being 8110 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil remained stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil quoted at 15000 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil market price at 17000 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was weak, at 2810 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [5][8] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 3 - 10 contracts [14][20][23]