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PX、PTA：没有利多驱动的乏味阶段能源化工
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-16 13:36
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Weekly Summary: PX and PTA both showed weak consolidation this week. For PX, after the impact of the emergency was digested, the support from the cost side weakened, and with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the market sentiment was bearish. For PTA, after the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not sustain, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorated, with processing fees and spot basis dropping [9]. - Market Forecast: Crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate. PX supply will remain relatively stable with minor changes, and PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton. PTA supply will face pressure from new capacity, and it will likely trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to remain on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views 3.1.1 Weekly Summary - PX: After the shock of the emergency, the cost support from crude oil weakened. Although there are still some maintenance plans this month and social inventories are at a historical low, with insufficient supply - side positives and weakening downstream demand expectations, the overall market sentiment is bearish [9]. - PTA: After the disappearance of cost - side drivers, the fundamentals could not continue to drive the market. Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in operating rates, and new capacity on the supply side has put pressure on the supply - demand balance. Processing fees have fallen below 200 yuan/ton, and the spot basis has dropped rapidly [9]. 3.1.2 Market Forecast - Crude Oil: With obvious bottom support and weakening upper - end demand and continuous trade issues, crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate [10]. - PX: Chinese PX supply is relatively stable, with some minor adjustments in maintenance schedules. Asian PX supply will also remain generally stable. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6,500 - 6,850 yuan/ton [10]. - PTA: Newly commissioned capacity in East China will bring pressure to the supply side. PTA is expected to trade in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton [10]. - Polyester: Production cuts have been fully implemented, and there are no new cuts in the short term. The operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [10]. - Weaving: In the off - season, there is a lack of new orders, and the market shows no improvement [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Remain on the sidelines [10]. 3.2 Price Situation 3.2.1 PX - Futures: Prices fluctuated within a range, with the closing price of the main contract on July 11 at 6,694 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (0.33%) from July 4, and the settlement price at 6,720 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) [13][15]. - Spot: After a narrow - range increase, prices turned down. From July 7 - 11, the average basis of the main contract was 56 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price was 6,772 yuan/ton, down 128.2 yuan/ton (- 1.86%) from the previous period [16][18]. 3.2.2 PTA - Futures: With weakening demand, prices fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the main contract on July 11 was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.21%) from July 4, and the settlement price was 4,710 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.59%) [20][22]. - Spot: Trading was mainly between traders, with sporadic replenishment by polyester factories. The average daily trading volume was around 2 - 3 million tons. From July 6 - 12, the average basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, the average CIF price in the Chinese market was 607 US dollars/ton, down 23.8 US dollars/ton (- 3.92%) from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,761.6 yuan/ton, down 170.4 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) [23][25]. 3.3 Device Operation Conditions 3.3.1 PX Devices - Domestic Changes: Many domestic PX devices have different operating loads, such as Ningbo Daxie operating at 60% capacity, and some devices in Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical operating at 85 - 90% capacity [30]. - Asian Other Regions: Some devices in Asian other regions have restarted or adjusted their operating rates, such as Pertamina in Indonesia restarting from a shutdown and some Japanese and Korean devices having maintenance or unexpected shutdowns [32][33]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate remained relatively stable, with 83.00% from July 1 - 7 and 83.13% from July 8 - 14 [34]. 3.3.2 PTA Devices - Device Changes: Some PTA devices such as Ningbo Taihua and Hainan Yisheng are under maintenance, and a new 3.2 - million - ton device in East China plans to put 1.6 - million - ton capacity into operation recently and another 1.6 - million - ton capacity in August [37]. - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate increased by 1.22% due to the resumption of some devices [38]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis 3.4.1 Cost - Crude Oil: Investors are concerned about the results of the tariff negotiations between the US and key trading partners. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 14 was 66.98 US dollars/barrel, down 0.95 US dollars/barrel from July 7, and Brent crude oil's was 69.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.37 US dollars/barrel. The weekly average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 0.77 US dollars/barrel and 1.13 US dollars/barrel respectively compared to last week [43][45][47]. - Naphtha: Demand in Asia, especially in China, is strong, with both supply and demand sides being robust. The average weekly price of CFR Japan naphtha is 591.40 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit is 27.23 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - PX: After the impact of oil prices weakened, PX prices remained stagnant. The average weekly price of CFR China Main Port was 846.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.28% from the previous week, and the average weekly price of FOB South Korea was 822.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.27% [55]. 3.4.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: Although there were unexpected situations with overseas devices, the impact on processing fees was limited. The weekly average of PXN was 253.79 yuan/ton, down 7.51% from the previous period, and the PX - MX margin rebounded after a decline, with a weekly average of 96.50 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - PTA Processing Margin: Profits have been compressed to below 200 yuan/ton. The average spot processing fee from July 8 - 14 was 177.66 yuan/ton, compared with 298.31 yuan/ton last week [59][61]. - Inventory: PTA has entered the inventory accumulation stage. As of July 11, the social inventory was 4.397 million tons, up 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.95%. PTA factory inventory days decreased by 0.09 days, and polyester factory inventory days increased by 0.05 days [66][68]. 3.4.3 Demand - Polyester Product Prices: The prices of polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have declined. The average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,969.00 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the previous reporting period [74]. - Market Demand: The weakness of the market demand side is becoming more prominent. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from July 8 - 14 was estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventory has increased, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate has continued to decline [75][80].