氢能与燃料电池行业研究：绿色航运驱动绿氢消纳破局，开启绿醇千万吨级机遇窗口

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen and fuel cell industry [1] Core Insights - Green hydrogen consumption is crucial, with green shipping opening up demand opportunities. As of June 2025, green hydrogen project approvals correspond to a production capacity of 7.6 million tons, but the project startup rate is only 24%, equating to about 1.8 million tons of green hydrogen capacity. The key to commercializing the industry lies in establishing a sustainable profit model and finding downstream applications that can accept green hydrogen prices [1][10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced a legally binding net-zero emissions framework for the shipping industry, which is expected to come into effect around 2027. This framework will apply to all international vessels over 5,000 gross tons, making hydrogen-based fuels like green methanol a suitable option for compliance [1][28] Summary by Sections Section 1: Green Hydrogen Consumption and Demand from Green Shipping - Green hydrogen project approvals are high, but actual project implementation remains low, with only 24% of projects started [10] - The IMO's new regulations are pushing the shipping industry towards decarbonization, with significant penalties for non-compliance [23][25] Section 2: Rapid Growth in Demand for Methanol Ships - Methanol is becoming the preferred fuel for shipping companies, with 125 methanol dual-fuel ships ordered in 2023, accounting for 23% of new orders [2][42] - The economic viability of methanol as a fuel is critical, with fuel costs representing 30%-50% of operational costs for ships [2][48] Section 3: High Growth in Green Methanol Demand and Its Impact on Green Hydrogen - The demand for green methanol is expected to exceed 40 million tons by 2030, significantly driving green hydrogen consumption [3][4] - The introduction of 300 methanol-fueled ships will lead to a demand for approximately 6.8 million tons of green methanol, which will in turn drive the consumption of 750,000 to 1.3 million tons of green hydrogen [4] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies that are early adopters of green methanol projects and collaborate with methanol shipowners are expected to benefit significantly. Recommended companies include Huadian Technology, Huaguang Huaneng, and Jidian Co [4]