供应端又生变数，能源化工：MEG

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected price range for ethylene glycol (MEG) is 4,250 - 4,450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - In the short - term, MEG prices are affected by supply - demand dynamics and external factors. The supply - demand structure is weakening, but the Red Sea shipping risk impacts imports and supports prices [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Disk and Spot Market Conditions) - Disk Trends: The price of MEG futures oscillated upwards. The trading volume for the week was 754,900 lots, and the open interest was 281,400 lots, a decrease of 82,000 lots compared to the previous period. From July 8th to July 15th, the closing price rose by 55 yuan/ton (1.29%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.52%) [8][10][12]. - Spot Market: The high - end domestic spot price was 4,408 yuan/ton on July 11th, and the low - end was 4,332 yuan/ton on July 8th. The average basis this week was 75.0 yuan/ton, down from 81.6 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign prices of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 90 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit) - Device Operation: The overall MEG operating rate changed little, with an operating rate of 61.41% from July 9th - 15th, down from 62.33% in the previous period. The oil - based operating rate was 63.05%, coal - based was 58.87%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. This week, some devices restarted, and some adjusted their loads. For example, Far Eastern Union planned to switch from MEG to ethylene oxide, reducing MEG production [18][21][23]. - Production Profit: Coal - based production profit remained at a high level this year. The MTO production profit was - 1,716.23 yuan/ton (previous: - 1,828.84 yuan/ton), coal - based was 639.82 yuan/ton (previous: 617.17 yuan/ton), and ethylene - based was - 121.65 US dollars/ton (previous: - 135.35 US dollars/ton) [31][33]. - Inventory: As of July 10th, the MEG port inventory was 494,800 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of - 10.30%. Polyester production cuts affected port pick - up volumes [37][38]. 3.3 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - Cost: Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate, with strong bottom support but weakening demand and ongoing trade issues. Cost decline was negative for downstream product prices [6]. - Demand: The polyester factory's average weekly load was 87.04%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms' average weekly load was 60.17%. The prices of polyester products generally declined. The market for polyester downstream products was weak, with new orders scarce, and the weaving comprehensive operating rate continued to decline. From July 8th - 14th, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated at 50%. Polyester factory inventories increased, with POY, FDY, and DTY average inventory days at 24.20 days, 24.70 days, and 29.40 days respectively as of July 10th [48][53][58].