银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit per catty of eggs is in a state of loss or flat, and it is expected that the downward space of the futures price on the disk is relatively limited. The upward space of the September contract in the second half of the year will depend on the future volume of culled chickens. If the volume of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if the volume of culled chickens fails to maintain, the September contract may fluctuate slightly stronger. Recently, the egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. As the September contract is a peak - season contract, after the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise with the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory restocking [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3612, down 8 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 12; JD09 closed at 3591, down 24. The 01 - 05 spread was 211, up 4; the 05 - 09 spread was - 190, up 12; the 09 - 01 spread was - 21, down 16 [3] - Price Ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, unchanged; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.50, down 0.01; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.26, unchanged. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.21, down 0.01 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. Most regional prices remained stable, with only slight increases in some areas such as Xiaogan and Jingmen [3][6] - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens was 4.77 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. Most regional prices remained stable [3] 3.3 Profit Calculation - Cost: The average price of corn was 2409, down 5 from the previous day; the average price of bean meal was 2924, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.56, down 0.01 [3] - Income: The average price of culled chickens was 4.77, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21, up 0.04 [3] - Profit: The profit per chicken was - 3.18 yuan, up 0.92 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per catty, up 0.02 yuan from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The national mainstream price remained stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with normal sales [6] - In - production Laying Hens: In June, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The estimated in - production laying hen inventories in July, August, September, and October 2025 are approximately 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - Chick Hatchlings: In June, the monthly chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (about 50% of the country) was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - Culled Chicken Volume: From July 4th to July 11th, the national main - production - area culled chicken volume was 16.27 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week [7] - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of July 10th, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7592 tons, with little change from the previous week [8] - Inventory: As of the week of July 10th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week [8] - Profit: As of July 10th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.68 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week. On July 4th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.38 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.46 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.77 yuan per catty, up 0.04 yuan from the previous day [9] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end and the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]