Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8042 with a rise of 30; for palm oil, it was 8722 with a rise of 14; for rapeseed oil, it was 9470 with a rise of 66. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 42 with a fall of 4, for palm oil it was 18 with a rise of 2, and for rapeseed oil it was 72 with a rise of 4 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 680 with a rise of 16, the OI - Y spread was 1428 with a rise of 36, the OI - P spread was 748 with a rise of 52, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a rise of 0.01 [3]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of - 208 for the 8 - month ship - period, with a CNF price of 1045. The European rapeseed oil had a negative profit of - 796 for the 8 - month ship - period, with an FOB price of 1026 [3]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 104.9 million tons, palm oil was 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil was 70.6 million tons [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 17.95%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [5]. - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from the previous week. The import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips can be considered [5]. - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate as it enters a phased inventory - building period [6]. - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to ship - buying and policy changes [6][9]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [14]. - Arbitrage: For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again [14]. - Options: Wait and see [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and month - to - month spreads [13][16][19]
银河期货油脂日报-20250716
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-16 13:55