Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Apple Daily in the Agricultural Products R & D Report by the Commodity Research Institute, dated July 16, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Price: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples dropped from 4.10 to 3.95, Penglai's from 4.20 to 4.05, while prices of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 remained unchanged at 4.80 and 2.40 respectively. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits rose from 7.27 to 7.29 [3] - Futures Price: AP01 decreased from 7713 to 7697, AP05 from 7742 to 7740, and AP10 from 7862 to 7840. The spread AP01 - AP05 dropped from - 29 to - 43, AP05 - AP10 increased from - 120 to - 100, and AP10 - AP01 decreased from 149 to 143 [3] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 decreased from 487 to 203, against AP05 from 458 to 160, and against AP10 from 338 to 60 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - Inventory: As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons from the previous week. The shipment speed was similar to the previous week and still slower than the same period last year [4] - Transaction: Yesterday's transaction price remained stable, the number of buyers increased, and the overall transaction volume slightly increased. Storage merchants were willing to sell, and the overall market shipment volume was still slow. The prices of early - maturing apples were higher than last year [7] - Profit: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.7 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] - Spot Price: In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the mainstream apple prices were stable. The prices of different grades and varieties were in certain ranges, and the transaction increased with slightly higher buyer enthusiasm [7] Trading Logic - Currently, the market inventory is low, demand is in the off - season, and spot shipments are average. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. Before the new - season apples are on the market, the supply is low and demand is weak, with little supply - demand contradiction, so the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: Sell put options [9] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, and the spread between different AP contracts, as well as the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets and the prices of 6 kinds of fruits [13][15][22]
银河期货苹果日报-20250716
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-16 13:59