统计局2025年1-6月房地产数据点评：地产基本面继续磨底，一线城市房价边际下行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with marginal declines in housing prices in first-tier cities [3][4] - In June, the sales decline continued to expand, indicating a persistent downward trend in the market [5] - The overall investment and sales data for the first half of 2025 shows significant year-on-year declines across various metrics, including a 11.2% drop in real estate development investment and a 5.5% decrease in sales revenue [3][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales and Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total sales revenue of commercial housing was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 45,851 million square meters, down 3.5% [3][5] - The average selling price of new commercial housing in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [20] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 was 46,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, while the funds available to real estate companies were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.2% [3][37] - The decline in sales has significantly impacted the funding available to real estate companies, with pre-sales and personal mortgage loans also showing declines [37] Construction Activity - The area of new housing starts in the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.0% year-on-year, while the area of completed housing was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.8% [58] - Although the year-on-year decline in new starts has narrowed, the level remains low, indicating a continued downward trend in construction activity [58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with proactive land acquisition, high-quality land reserves, strong product capabilities, and sufficient risk clearance will stand out in the current market environment [4][70] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Resources Land, Greentown China, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [70]