美国6月CPI点评：美国通胀如期反弹，但对联储降息影响或较小

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the month-on-month growth falling short of market expectations[2] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation is in a rebound phase, with core inflation remaining relatively stable, alleviating concerns about excessive upward pressure[3] - Energy inflation showed a negative growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points compared to May[3] - Food prices increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from May, indicating a slight strengthening in food inflation[3] Core Inflation Insights - Core goods inflation increased by 0.42 percentage points to 0.7% year-on-year, while core services inflation rose by 3.616%, up approximately 0.06 percentage points from May[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming more evident, with core inflation expected to continue rising due to tariff effects and base effect normalization[4] Federal Reserve Implications - The June inflation rebound is unlikely to significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as the data aligns with their expectations[5] - The Fed is expected to monitor the inflation slope in July and August, with potential rate cuts anticipated in November, depending on future inflation data[5] Risks and Considerations - Ongoing tariff uncertainties may complicate the Fed's decision-making process, with potential new tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals posing risks to inflation[5] - A decline in long-term inflation expectations among U.S. residents suggests a stable outlook, but geopolitical tensions could lead to unexpected inflation spikes or economic downturns[5]