Goldman Sachs·2025-07-16 15:25Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports Products with a 12-month price target of HK$117, indicating an upside potential of 30.3% from the current price of HK$89.80 [16][18]. Core Insights - Anta's operational update for 2Q25 shows retail sales growth for its core brand at +LSD% year-over-year, while Fila and other brands performed better, with Fila growing at +MSD% and Descente and Kolon exceeding +40% and +70% respectively [1][12]. - The management expressed confidence in the recovery of the Anta brand in 2H25 following restructuring efforts in 2Q25, with a full-year growth target of HSD% for Anta core, MSD% for Fila, and over 30% for other brands [1][12]. - The report highlights the solid performance of Fila and smaller brands, which are expected to offset any potential weaknesses in the Anta brand, thus providing a positive outlook for the overall group [1][12]. Operational Updates - In 2Q25, Anta's core brand faced challenges due to management restructuring and weaker offline traffic, leading to a slower sales growth compared to previous quarters [7][8]. - The e-commerce channel showed growth at +LSD%, while offline sales also recorded similar growth rates, indicating a balanced performance across channels [7][8]. - The management has initiated a "Light-house Store Campaign" to enhance store performance in lower-tier cities, which involves optimizing underperforming stores and potentially closing some temporarily [8][12]. Brand Performance - Fila's retail sales grew by +MSD% year-over-year in 2Q25, with the core Fila brand achieving +HSD% growth, indicating strong brand momentum [11][12]. - Other brands like Descente and Kolon reported impressive growth rates, with Descente achieving over 40% and Kolon over 70% year-over-year [11][12]. - MAIA, still in its incubation stage, posted over 30% growth in 2Q25, driven by an expanding offline presence and innovative retail formats [12]. Margin and Cost Control - Management noted some headwinds on gross profit margins due to a shift towards online sales channels, which typically involve deeper discounts [13]. - Operating expenses for the Anta brand were well-controlled in 1H25, with expectations for increased marketing expenses in 2H25 due to planned events [13]. - The overall margin outlook remains positive, supported by stronger growth in smaller brands that typically carry higher operating profit margins [13].