摩根士丹利：中国思考-GDP：年度预测上调，但增长动能减弱

July 15, 2025 02:51 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific But this does not change our view of notably slower growth in 2H: We expect real GDP growth YoY to slip to 4.5% in 3Q and 4.2% in 4Q, owing to a trio of drags: (1) Weaker exports: We expect export growth to slow from 6%Y in 1H to ~0%Y in 2H, resulting in a 60–70bps drag on 2H GDP growth. The payback from earlier export front-loading alone would exert a 2ppt drag on the YoY pace in 2H vs. 1H. In our base case, we assume that the US tariff rate on China ...