Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Market Analysis: The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and even well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [2]. - Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton [2]. - Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days [3]. - Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [3]. - Strategy: None [4] Summary According to the Catalog I. Ferrosilicon Market Review In late January 2025, driven by the black sector market, the price of ferrosilicon alloy increased to a certain extent. By early February, the ferrosilicon price reached a relatively high level. Then, as coal prices fell and electricity prices in some regions were adjusted downward, the alloy price weakened further. From March to May, affected by tariff disturbances and weak market expectations, bulk commodities were under pressure, and the ferrosilicon price continued its downward trend. After June, with the stabilization and rebound of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price increased to a certain extent. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [12]. II. The Price Center of Ferrosilicon Has Shifted Downward, and Alloy Enterprises Have Been in Long - Term Losses From January to June 2025, the overall cost center of ferrosilicon shifted downward. After April, affected by the decline in electricity prices and coal prices, the ferrosilicon price oscillated downward, and alloy enterprises took the initiative to reduce production due to profit pressure. Another important factor in ferrosilicon cost is semi - coke, which accounts for about 25% of the cost. In 2025, the semi - coke price dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in ferrosilicon cost. In June, due to safety and environmental inspections in coal - producing regions, coal supply contracted, and the price stabilized and rebounded, followed by a certain increase in the alloy price. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of the year, the semi - coke market reached a relatively low price in the past four years, falling below 600 yuan/ton, and the rebound was limited. The prices of silica and oxidized iron scale used in ferrosilicon production fluctuated slightly and had limited impact on costs. The silica price dropped in the first half of the year and then remained relatively stable, while the oxidized iron scale showed an overall oscillating downward trend and was at a five - year low. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses, with the loss in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 300 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the average monthly production profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was positive. After April, these regions gradually suffered losses, and the losses were severe in June. In July, with the increase in the ferrosilicon price, the average loss of ferrosilicon showed a decreasing trend [14]. III. Supply Increased Year - on - Year, Suppressing the Ferrosilicon Price According to Steel Union data, in June 2025, ferrosilicon production was 414,000 tons, a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. Overall, from January to June 2025, total ferrosilicon production was 2.691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Although the production increased year - on - year, it was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. The year - on - year increase in production further suppressed the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of 2025, the ferrosilicon market lacked positive factors, which affected production. In May, some large factories stopped production for maintenance. In June, Ningxia and Shaanxi showed an increasing trend in production due to cost advantages [26]. IV. Steel Enterprises Had Decent Profits, and Downstream Enterprises Replenished Their Stocks to Some Extent Downstream enterprises had good profitability. Taking Tangshan as an example, hot - rolled coils and threaded steel maintained profitability. Nationwide, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises remained above 50%. With decent profits, steel enterprises had fewer maintenance and production - reduction situations, and the molten iron production remained at a high level. At the same time, steel enterprises replenished their stocks when the alloy price was relatively low. In 2025, the procurement price of steel enterprises decreased significantly, and the ferrosilicon procurement price was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with a downward trend in the first half of the year. With relatively low procurement prices, downstream steel enterprises increased their procurement volume, and the inventory days of downstream enterprises increased. In June, the inventory days in North China, East China, and South China were higher than the same period last year, with the available days of inventory in South China reaching 17 days. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, higher than the inventory level in the same period in 2024. The main downstream sectors of ferrosilicon are steel consumption, stainless steel, and magnesium metal consumption. As of early July, the consumption of ferrosilicon in the five major steel products decreased by 2.0% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production of stainless steel crude steel increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the consumption of ferrosilicon increased accordingly, while the cumulative production of magnesium metal changed little. From January to May 2025, ferrosilicon exports decreased, with a year - on - year decline of 14.2%. The year - on - year increase in ferrosilicon supply and the decline in steel demand and exports led to a higher inventory level in alloy enterprises compared to the same period last year. In June, there was a concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts, and recently, the number of warehouse receipts has shown an increasing trend. According to Huatai Futures' calculation, the overall inventory situation of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the total inventory in the three - link system is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [37]. V. Conclusion The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton. Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days. Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [63].
专题报告：硅铁产区处于亏损，关注电价对成本的影响
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-16 23:31