Changjiang Securities·2025-07-16 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - As of the end of June, the company's PE ratio stands at 37.51x, which is at the 55th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value. It is expected that with the continued enhancement of the mutual access policy in the Hong Kong capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuation. The company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 27.4 billion, 29.9 billion, and 32.4 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of HKD 16.8 billion, 17.6 billion, and 19.4 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 32.2x, 30.8x, and 27.9x respectively [2][48]. Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend in June, driven by domestic policy support, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.0% and 18.7% respectively compared to the end of 2024. The average daily trading volume (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in June was HKD 230.2 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [11][17]. - The IPO scale in June saw 15 new stocks listed, totaling HKD 27.9 billion, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 606% despite a month-on-month decrease of 51% [27][28]. Business Segments - Spot Market: The overall Hong Kong stock market showed high trading activity, with the ADT for the Hong Kong stock market reaching HKD 230.2 billion in June, up 9.4% month-on-month and 106.9% year-on-year. Northbound trading ADT was HKD 162.9 billion, and southbound trading ADT was HKD 120.8 billion, reflecting increases of 7.5% and 27.9% month-on-month respectively [8][17]. - Derivatives Market: In June, the average daily volume (ADV) for futures was 57.3 million contracts, down 2.4% month-on-month and 8.4% year-on-year, while the ADV for options was 82.0 million contracts, up 1.9% month-on-month and 9.7% year-on-year [21]. - Commodity Market: The LME daily average trading volume in June was 749,000 contracts, reflecting increases of 6.0% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [24]. - Primary Market: The number of new listings in the Hong Kong stock market for the first half of 2025 reached 43, with a total scale of HKD 1,067 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 688.6% [27]. Investment Income - As of the end of June, the HIBOR rates for 6 months, 1 month, and overnight were 2.38%, 0.73%, and 0.03% respectively, showing a month-on-month increase while year-on-year rates have decreased [36].