工业硅、多晶硅日评：供给端扰动不断，硅系价格走势坚挺-20250717

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The prices of silicon-based products are showing a firm trend. For industrial silicon, supply may be less than expected while demand from the polysilicon sector may increase, and short - term prices are expected to continue to be strong with potential for greater fluctuations. For polysilicon, the market is driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 8,950 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract closing price decreased by 1.14% to 8,685 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price increased by 1.12% to 42,945 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - On July 14, 2025, Yichang Henglong Chemical Co., Ltd.'s project for the reconstruction of water - free dyeing dyes and silicone oil was approved for filing, with planned production capacities of 3000 tons/year of water - free dyeing dyes and 1200 tons/year of silicone oil [1]. - An Anhui - based photovoltaic glass kiln production line with a designed capacity of 750 tons/day entered cold repair, leading to a decrease in supply and an improvement in downstream procurement sentiment [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon supply: Northern large - scale factories have production cuts with no restart news, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and gradually increasing enterprise operations, but the restart speed is slow, resulting in a possible supply reduction [1]. - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts with some planned restarts in July, bringing some demand increase; the silicone industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but weak demand, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises is based on needs [1]. - Polysilicon supply: Enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with increased inventory of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the trading atmosphere has improved, the terminal market remains weak due to over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: In the short - term, prices are expected to continue to be strong with greater fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there will be selling pressure after the market rebounds [1]. - Polysilicon: The price may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. Existing long positions can consider taking profits, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual operations of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reforms [1].