五矿期货早报有色金属-20250717

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price Movement: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - Market Outlook: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - Price Range: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - Price Movement: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - Market Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - Price Range: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - Price Movement: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - Market Outlook: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - Price Movement: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - Market Outlook: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - Price Movement: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - Supply and Demand: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - Inventory: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - Market Outlook: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - Price Range: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - Price Movement: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - Supply Impact: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - Market Outlook: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - Price Range: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Price Movement: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - Market Outlook: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - Price Range: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - Price Movement: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - Market Outlook: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - Price Range: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Price Movement: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - Market Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price Movement: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - Inventory: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - Market Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].