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钢材:棚改难再复制
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-17 01:03

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current real estate market is in an adjustment period, with sales and new construction remaining sluggish. Despite frequent policy introductions, the effects are limited, and market confidence has yet to be restored. As a result, the demand for construction steel is under pressure, and the real - estate sector's role in driving steel demand has significantly weakened. The steel consumption structure is changing, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and urban renewal emerging as new growth points for steel demand. The overall steel demand is expected to decline slowly, but there are still structural highlights, and the industry is shifting from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement" [1]. - The rumored 2025 Central Urban Work Conference is unlikely to lead to a "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" in the short term. The policy tone is more cautious, and the macro - environment has changed fundamentally compared to 2015. It is difficult to replicate the shantytown renovation model to relieve real - estate inventory pressure, and new ways to stimulate effective terminal demand need to be explored [4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Comparison of Policy Expressions in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, the shantytown monetary resettlement policy was fully implemented. The policy aimed to achieve multiple goals such as destocking and stabilizing investment and had a clear and positive tone. The 2015 urban work conference emphasized accelerating shantytown and old - building renovations [4]. - The 2025 Central Urban Work Conference indicates that China's urbanization is shifting from high - speed growth to stable development, and urban construction is moving from incremental expansion to stock quality improvement. The policy emphasizes a more cautious and long - term approach to shantytown renovation, and the expected "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" may have limited incremental impact on the real - estate and related industries [5]. Comparison of Internal Economic Environments in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, after the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy was in a mild recovery. China cut interest rates five times, reducing the one - year loan prime rate from 5.6% to 4.35%, lowering mortgage rates and down - payment ratios. This stimulated the real economy and housing purchases, reduced financing costs, and led to a decline in the real - estate inventory - to - sales ratio [6]. - Currently, although the interest rate environment is similar to 2015 (both in a state of monetary easing), the marginal effect of easing is weakened. Residents and enterprises have weak expectations for future income, and the willingness to increase leverage is low. The current resident leverage ratio is higher than in 2015, and the investment demand for housing has decreased [6]. Comparison of External Environments in 2015 and 2025 - In 2015, the global economy was in a weak recovery after the financial crisis. Major economies implemented loose monetary policies, and global liquidity was abundant. China was in a high - growth phase of industrialization, with strong exports and low inflation, providing room for domestic monetary easing [7]. - Currently, the global economy faces more complex challenges. Major developed economies maintain high - interest rate policies after high - inflation shocks, and there are frequent geopolitical conflicts and trade policy disturbances. China is in a period of population structure adjustment and real - estate deleveraging, with both internal and external demand weakening. The effectiveness of monetary easing is restricted [7][9]. Outlook for the Steel Industry - The real - estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with weak sales, investment, and new construction. Policy support has not effectively restored market confidence, and the demand for construction steel is expected to remain under pressure [14]. - The steel demand structure will gradually shift from being dominated by real - estate to being supported by infrastructure, manufacturing, and green transformation projects. Although the real - estate sector still has a negative impact, the overall steel demand may decline slowly and undergo structural adjustment [14].